The resumption of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in May after a three-year hiatus was never about peace. It was political theater, engineered by Moscow to deflect global pressure, delay Western action, and provide Donald Trump with the illusion of diplomatic progress. Seven months later, the performance continues, and Trump remains in the audience.
The makeup of the Russian delegation said it all. Led once again by Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s former culture minister with no formal diplomatic authority, and staffed by the same low-level figures from the failed 2022 talks, this was not a team sent to broker a compromise. It was a cast assembled to re-stage a performance: the illusion of negotiation without any intention to abandon Russia’s maximalist demands.
The demands were familiar. Medinsky insisted Ukraine must recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of four partially occupied oblasts – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – even though Moscow was nowhere near complete military control of those territories. But the delegation went further, warning that if Ukraine refused to capitulate, Moscow would seek to take at least two more oblasts[i]. At the same time, Russian troops intensified operations in new areas, making clear that negotiations were a cover for continued aggression. While countries at war typically seek battlefield leverage before negotiations, Russia’s pattern was different: expanding territorial demands during talks, deploying low-level negotiators without authority, and explicitly threatening to seize additional oblasts if demands weren’t met immediately.
This escalation was not just about land – it was about erasing Ukraine as a sovereign state. In a call with Trump, Putin claimed his goal was to eliminate the “root causes” of the conflict. Many observers assumed this referred to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. But Russia’s insistence on dismantling Ukrainian sovereignty revealed the truth: in Putin’s view, the “root cause” is Ukraine’s independence itself.
For those who’ve followed closely, this comes as no surprise. As far back as June 2022, Putin compared himself to Peter the Great, declaring that he was taking back what belongs to Russia.[ii] This wasn’t a metaphor – it was a mission statement. During those spring negotiations, Medinsky reminded Western interlocutors that Peter the Great’s war with Sweden lasted 21 years[iii] – an unsubtle warning that Russia is willing to fight indefinitely to realize its neo-imperial goals.
Escalation by Design
Since Trump took office, Russia has dramatically stepped up its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War has documented a clear pattern: every time Putin spoke with Trump or the Kremlin orchestrated another round of negotiations theater, Russia increased the intensity of its bombardments[iv]. Trump himself acknowledged this grim reality, admitting that every time he has what he considers a pleasant conversation with Putin, Melania later tells him that Putin bombed another civilian target in Ukraine and killed more people[v].
Even after Ukraine struck a significant portion of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet – aircraft used to launch missiles at civilian targets -Trump’s post describing the contents of the call effectively gave Putin tacit approval to retaliate[vi]. Rather than condemn Russia’s escalation, Trump reduced the war to a childish dispute, saying it was like “two young children fighting in a park,” as if this were a misunderstanding between equals rather than a violent invasion by a nuclear-armed power bent on conquest.[vii]
Russia has exploited that very ambivalence, using Trump’s repeated misreadings of the war as cover for continued escalation. The spectacle of negotiations has provided Moscow with precisely what it needed: an American president too invested in the appearance of progress to support meaningful action. Instead of lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range Western weapons, expediting military aid deliveries, or imposing the severe sanctions in the bipartisan Senate bill that has languished in Congress since April, Trump has granted Putin extension after extension. Yet, these diplomatic gestures have been accompanied not by restraint but by escalation, a strategy designed to maximize territorial gains while Trump remains paralyzed by the illusion of progress. It’s hard to escape the sense that Moscow has learned exactly how to play him.
Ultimatums Without Leverage
In July, Trump issued Putin a 50-day ultimatum to get serious about peace talks or face stepped-up sanctions. He subsequently shortened that window to 10 days[viii]. This was immediately followed by the Kremlin inviting Steve Witkoff to make another visit to Moscow. The Kremlin has been using Witkoff, who lacks diplomatic expertise[ix] and regional knowledge but does have Trump’s ear, as a vehicle for negotiations, theatrics, and disinformation.
Witkoff’s visit catalyzed the Alaska summit, which Trump hoped would be his diplomatic triumph. Trump remained under the illusion that he could achieve at least a ceasefire through his personal charisma and what he deemed a strong relationship with Putin. However, Putin pocketed the prestige of a summit with an American president and emerged from international isolation without giving anything away – neither a ceasefire nor the bilateral or trilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy that Trump had been pushing for[x].
Russia also used Witkoff to float proposals about territorial exchanges. But these revealed Moscow’s contempt for the process: Russia proposed “exchanging” territory it doesn’t control in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia for parts of Donetsk it cannot conquer militarily[xi]. This cynical proposal would reward aggression while leaving Ukraine worse off. Moreover, Russia blocked any Western troop presence as part of post-war security guarantees that Ukraine demanded, even to contemplate concessions[xii].
The Theater Continues
Although Trump has expressed dissatisfaction and disappointment with Putin, he remains willing to be played. He is no longer oblivious to the fact that this is a theater aimed at him, yet he remains in the audience. Instead of finally imposing heavy sanctions and greenlighting the bipartisan Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (S.1241) that has stalled in the Senate since April, he continues to give Putin more time, engaging only in occasional bluffs that Putin keeps calling.
Putin has stepped up the theatrics by continuing to cater to Trump’s ego. Most recently, he criticized the Nobel Committee for not giving the peace prize to Trump – a statement that Trump promptly reposted on his Truth Social account[xiii]. Putin and other Kremlin officials also spoke effusively about Charlie Kirk following his killing, not because they cared but because they knew it would appeal to MAGA supporters and Trump himself[xiv]. This is all part of the effort to keep Trump disengaged from Ukraine, allowing Russia to press its war aims without the United States in the way.
But the performance itself began to show cracks.
Backstage Unraveling
Another summit attempt in October, this time in Budapest, collapsed before it began, after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov presented Senator Marco Rubio with an uncompromising list of maximalist demands that left no room for serious negotiation.[xv] In the aftermath, Moscow shifted tactics. Rather than relying on formal diplomacy, the Kremlin began deploying Steve Witkoff more directly to shape Trump’s perceptions. According to leaked call transcripts published by Bloomberg,[xvi] Russian officials proposed that Witkoff present their core demands as if they were his own, effectively turning him from a White House envoy to Moscow into a Kremlin envoy to Mar-a-Lago. The ploy initially appeared effective: Trump began pressing Ukraine to show flexibility and offer concessions, repeating talking points that aligned with Moscow’s war aims and assuming the plan came from a trusted advisor.
But that illusion has started to unravel. Linguistic analysis suggested that the so-called “peace plan” was likely translated from Russian,[xvii] and the leak has triggered unusually sharp backlash within Trump’s own party. Republican Congressman Don Bacon of Nebraska called for Witkoff’s removal: “He cannot be trusted to lead these negotiations. Would a Russian paid agent do less than he? He should be fired.”[xviii] Another GOP Representative, Brian Fitzpatrick, dismissed the episode as “one of the many reasons these ridiculous side-shows and secret meetings need to stop.”[xix] With that backlash growing, the 28-point plan, once a vehicle for Kremlin strategy, may now become a catalyst for internal dissent.
Clear-Eyed in Europe
Europe, meanwhile, has long since abandoned any illusions about the war’s true nature. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the current era as “a world of imperial ambitions and imperial wars” in her 2025 State of the Union address.[xx] Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal was even more direct, warning that Putin’s “imperial goals” remain unchanged despite ongoing peace talks[xxi]. Leaders from Warsaw to Paris understand this is not about NATO or security concerns – it’s about revanchism and the erasure of Ukrainian sovereignty. The myths once promoted by Russian propagandists about Western provocation have collapsed under the weight of Russia’s actions and explicit admissions of Kremlin officials.
And still, Trump imagines a deal is within reach. He casts himself as a singular negotiator who can succeed where others have failed. But Putin is not looking for a deal – he is looking for an American partner who will help legitimize his war aims. In Trump, he has found one.
Yet even that performance may be starting to falter. In late December, Putin claimed that Ukraine had attacked his Valdai residence, a fabrication designed to derail the talks while casting Kyiv as the aggressor. Trump initially echoed the Kremlin line. U.S. intelligence quickly debunked it. Trump quietly backed away. The episode revealed how thoroughly Putin had been shaping Trump’s reality.
But even if that realization is dawning, it comes too late—the costs of months of illusion are already severe.
The Price of Illusion
The danger of this delusion cannot be overstated. Every time Trump grants Putin more time, he makes it harder for Congress and the international community to act decisively. The costs are measured in lost lives and shattered cities.
At its core, this war is about the survival of a democratic state in the face of authoritarian conquest. Ukraine is not fighting for NATO membership – it is fighting for its very existence. The United States must stop pretending that this conflict can be solved through clever posturing or personal rapport.
This is shameful behavior from an American president. Instead of standing with the victim of aggression, Trump has abandoned the traditional American role as leader of the free world. Worse, he has enabled and emboldened illiberal regimes not just in Europe but around the globe. His rhetoric validates neo-colonial ambitions and signals that raw power, not law or liberty, determines international outcomes.
The costs of Trump’s appeasement extend far beyond Ukraine. Emboldened by Trump’s reluctance to confront Russian escalation, Putin has begun testing NATO’s red lines. Russia has sent drones into Poland, and Romania, and Russian fighter jets have violated Estonian airspace[xxii]. These are not accidents – they are calculated provocations designed to probe how far Putin can push before Trump finally responds. So far, the answer appears to be: indefinitely. Each violation without consequence invites the subsequent, more brazen incursion. Putin is systematically eroding the credibility of NATO’s collective defense commitment, betting that Trump will find reasons to avoid confrontation even when treaty allies are directly threatened.
The Senate’s Moment
It is high time the Senate took over leadership on this issue. Trump has proven willing to be strung along with theater that is now apparent even to him. The Senate should move immediately to pass the sanctions bill that has had veto-proof bipartisan support since April[xxiii]. It is time to reassert the United States’ role as a defender of freedom, not an enabler of aggression. Passing this bill and placing it on Trump’s desk would force a decision: will he sign legislation that enjoys overwhelming support from both parties and take meaningful action against Russian aggression, or will he veto it, signaling that his priorities remain misaligned with America’s broader strategic interests?
The bill would equip Trump with real leverage to achieve the peace deal he seeks – Republican senators who have watched Putin string Trump along for months understand that credible economic pressure is the only language Moscow respects. And it would allow the United States to finally impose costs on Russia that might change Putin’s calculus.
Putin is betting that the United States will remain divided, distracted, and deferential. So far, he’s been right – painfully so. Trump, by playing along, continues to prove him right. This is not just a test of Ukrainian resilience. It is a test of American will. If the United States is to reclaim its credibility, it must stop treating Russia’s aggression as theater – and confront it as the existential threat to the liberal order that it is.
[i] “Russia Reportedly Threatened to Seize Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy Regions During Istanbul Talks,” Meduza, May 16, 2025, https://meduza.io/en/news/2025/05/16/russia-reportedly-threatened-to-seize-ukraine-s-kharkiv-and-sumy-regions-during-istanbul-talks.
[ii] Andrew Roth, “Putin Compares Himself to Peter the Great in Quest to Take Back Russian Lands,” The Guardian, June 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/putin-compares-himself-to-peter-the-great-in-quest-to-take-back-russian-lands.
[iii] “Kremlin Negotiator Invokes Peter the Great’s 21-Year War with Sweden in Ukraine Talks,” The Moscow Times, May 16, 2025, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/16/kremlin-negotiator-invokes-peter-the-greats-21-year-war-with-sweden-in-ukraine-talks-a89109.
[iv] Institute for the Study of War, “Russian Drone and Missile Strikes on Ukraine: January 1, 2025 to September 3, 2025,” accessed October 14, 2025, https://understandingwar.org/research/uncategorized/russian-drone-and-missile-strikes-on-ukraine-january-1-2025-to-september-3-2025/.
[v] Joey Garrison, “Melania Trump Has Input on What Vladimir Putin Is Doing in Russia, President Trump Says,” USA Today, July 14, 2025, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/14/melania-trump-input-vladimir-putin-russia/85195997007/.
[vi] Kevin Liptak and Kylie Atwood, “Trump and Putin Phone Call Raises Questions About US Response to Ukraine,” CNN, June 4, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/04/politics/trump-putin-phone-call-ukraine-response.
[vii] Kylie Atwood, “Trump: ‘Why Should Our Kids Fight in Ukraine?’” CNN, June 5, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/05/politics/ukraine-war-trump-kids-fighting.
[viii] Nahal Toosi and Alexander Ward, “Trump Gives Russia 10-Day Ultimatum for Ukraine Ceasefire,” Politico, July 29, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/29/trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-00482064.
[ix] Igor Desyatnikov, “The Axis of Illusion: How Russia and Iran Are Partnering to Manipulate Trump,” The Hill, May 10, 2025, https://thehill.com/opinion/5293184-trump-russian-iranian-strategy/.
[x] Patrick Smith and Dareh Gregorian, “Russia’s Foreign Minister Says No Putin-Zelenskyy Summit Planned Despite Trump’s Peace Push,” NBC News, August 22, 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia/putin-zelenskyy-summit-not-planned-trump-russia-lavrov-peace-ukraine-rcna226248.
[xi] Guy Faulconbridge and Gleb Stolyarov, “Outline Emerges of Putin’s Offer to End His War on Ukraine,” Reuters, August 17, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/outline-emerges-putins-offer-end-his-war-ukraine-2025-08-17/.
[xii] Paul Kirby, “Putin Rejects Western Security in Ukraine, Warning Troops Would Be Target,” BBC News, September 5, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxwl15w2qko.
[xiii] Brooke Singman, “Trump’s Latest Posts Show He’s Pissed He Lost Nobel Peace Prize,” Yahoo News, October 11, 2025, https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-posting-spree-shows-losing-164322140.html.
[xiv] James Bickerton, “Vladimir Putin Links Charlie Kirk’s Death to America’s ‘Deep Split,'” Newsweek, October 2, 2025, https://www.newsweek.com/charlie-kirk-update-vladimir-putin-russia-donald-trump-10820535.
[xv] “Trump-Putin summit cancelled after Moscow’s hardline Ukraine demands,” Financial Times, October 31, 2025, https://www.ft.com/content/d6655fb1-31af-4da8-85f7-085a8fc00969.
[xvi] “Witkoff Discusses Ukraine Plans With Key Putin Aide: Transcript,” Bloomberg, November 25, 2025, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/witkoff-discusses-ukraine-plans-with-key-putin-aide-transcript.
[xvii] “Trump’s Ukraine Peace Deal Appears to Have Been Written in Russian,” The New Republic, November 23, 2025, https://newrepublic.com/post/203517/trump-ukraine-peace-deal-russian-language.
[xviii] “Republicans call for Trump envoy’s removal after leaked call reveals advice to Russia,” The Guardian, November 26, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/26/republicans-steve-witkoff-leaked-call-russia-ukraine.
[xix] Mychael Schnell, “Fitzpatrick criticizes Witkoff over leaked Ukraine-Russia call,” The Hill, November 26, 2025, https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5622854-fitzpatrick-criticizes-witkoff-ukraine-russia-peace/.
[xx] Ursula von der Leyen, “2025 State of the Union Address” (speech, European Parliament, Strasbourg, France, September 10, 2025), European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_25_2053.
[xxi] “Russia-Ukraine War Live Updates: Trump, Peace Plan, NATO,” Newsweek, November 24, 2025, https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-trump-peace-plan-nato-11096992.
[xxii] Jaroslav Lukiv, “Estonia Seeks NATO Consultation After Russian Jets Violate Airspace,” BBC News, September 20, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrp6p5mj3zo.
[xxiii] Claudia Grisales, “Congress Hopes to Raise Heat on Russia Amid Souring Relations Between Trump and Putin,” NPR, July 18, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/g-s1-78058/congress-russia-sanctions-trump-putin.