Introduction
Historian Margaret MacMillan wrote in “Warnings from Versailles” that by ignoring and underestimating the rise of populist authoritarians in favor of our own interests, we are abdicating American responsibility for a peaceful world order to aggressive regional bullies and risking tumult and instability on a massive scale.[1] MacMillan was especially critical of President Woodrow Wilson, who failed to solidify America’s global leadership role through bipartisan compromise in the US Congress. As noted by John F. Kennedy in his 1940 book, “Why England Slept,”[2] America’s return to isolationism (along with England’s complacency) after the first World War left Nazi Germany a free hand to twist history, pedal false narratives, rearm, and re-impose itself on the world. The result was another world war and an additional 70 million deaths. Applying history to the present predicament in Congress surrounding Ukraine war funding stalled by partisan rancor and Donald Trump’s egoism, could inform better decisions today.
American Isolationism Allows Authoritarian Regimes to Flourish
In 1919, President Wilson, a Democrat, had a chance to transcend party enmity and division in the US Senate, where Republicans held a narrow majority, by obtaining the two-thirds vote needed for passage of the Treaty of Versailles. After winning the Presidency on a “He kept us out of the war” platform, America’s entry into World War I was a pivot for Wilson.[3] Republicans subsequently complained that he refused to discuss the war or its aftermath with them, and that he neglected to meaningfully involve them in the Paris Peace Conference.[4] Most disastrously, he rejected a Henry Cabot Lodge-led Republican compromise that would have ratified the Wilson-brokered Treaty of Versailles and booked American membership in the Wilson-proposed League of Nations.[5] As historian Thomas A. Bailey wrote in Woodrow Wilson and the Great Betrayal, it was “Wilson…who delivered the fatal stab”[6] because he rejected every proposed amendment.[7] When America withdrew, as cited by Kennedy in Why England Slept, “fifty percent of the power and influence of the League vanished.”[8] Failure to compromise on Treaty ratification and not joining the League of Nations when it mattered most led to America’s long retreat from its vital equalizing role in the world order, of which Adolf Hitler’s Germany took full advantage.
One can draw a striking comparison between these events and the inexplicable Republican refusal to compromise on immigration, despite an existing bipartisan agreement, and the direct impact of that decision on aid to Ukraine. Republicans in the House of Representatives are under orders from their party’s presidential nominee, Donald Trump, to stall the deal brokered in the Senate by Mitch McConnell, simply because Trump wants to deny President Biden “a win,” and reserve any agreement for his administration if elected.[9] As subsequent efforts to fund Ukraine continue to molder in the House, once again, we are on the verge of abandoning our allies and of sacrificing an opportunity to rebuild international trust and credibility in return for the short-term political gain of one man (Trump).
Recent Signs of Western Resolve and a Weakening Russia
On February 26, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron indicated sending troops to Ukraine was not out of the question, saying, “Nothing should be excluded. We will do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war.”[10] Officials from other NATO countries including Hungary, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, and Spain, said they would not support such a step.[11] NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also denied troop deployment was under consideration.[12] Macron, however, set a courageous example. Similarly resolute was President Biden’s decision on March 12, 2024, to use his Presidential Drawdown Authority to supply $300 million in ammunition, artillery rounds, anti-aircraft missiles, and other equipment to Ukraine from existing U.S. stockpiles.[13] These gestures, however, pale in comparison to the more than $60 billion in funding now frozen in the House, where similar acts of political courage must meet the moment.
On February 27, 2024, Kremlin spokesperson Dimitri Peskov warned that Western troop involvement in the war would result in the “inevitability” of a direct military confrontation.[14] However, the scaffolding erected for what Russian President Vladimir Putin once thought would be a two-day war (now in its third year) on Ukraine, a country he still claims does not exist, appears unstable.[15] Despite a strong facade, the consequences of a lengthy war are becoming more apparent in Moscow.[16] Belying his confident rhetoric, Putin raised the upper age for military service from 51 to 70 years old amid staggering losses,[17] and imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny was murdered mere days from his exchange.[18]
Relatedly, in 2023, the number of Russian soldiers convicted of charges indicative of reluctance and disillusionment, like unauthorized abandonment of their units, increased to 4,373, from 887 cases recorded in 2022 and 527 cases in 2021 (the year before the war).[19] The charge of failing to comply with orders saw a significant increase as well, with 289 such cases in 2023, from a total of nine in the previous five years combined.[20] Reports from Russian troops of low morale and dissatisfaction with commanders have also been abundant since the invasion began.[21] At home, a feminist movement that includes many wives, mothers, and relatives of Russian soldiers deployed to or killed in Ukraine, continues to protest further mobilization, voice dissent, and demand the return of their men.[22] On February 28, 2024, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff for the British Armed Forces, said Russia has “struggled in Ukraine” and that “we have been surprised at its military weakness.”[23] He added, “There’s a continuing realization that this has been a disastrous war for Russia, 350,000 people killed and wounded…It’s a sign of Russia’s weakness that it’s shifting its economy so that it’s spending nearly 40 percent on defense and security.”[24]
Further Sanctions Alone Are Insufficient
Nonetheless, Putin’s powerful brand of authoritarianism and seductive historical revisionism have been better able to resist economic pressure than expected, despite a potentially precarious military situation and his tumultuous political circumstances. Putin has so far managed to block the pathways of comprehensive sanctions with adequate countermeasures. The European Union is now on its 13th package of Russian sanctions, with the most significant impact being Russia’s turn further inward and closer to regional powers and eastern partners, like Turkey, Iran, Syria, and North Korea.[25] Because these and other countries are not participating in enforcement, sanctions have buttressed state sponsored corruption, black-market activity, and international smuggling networks, as demonstrated by Putin’s shadow fleet of tankers willing to sail his fuel around the world in contravention of bans and price caps.[26]
While not without effect, sanctions lacking a coordinated strategic front from Western democracies have failed to cause mass unrest, concerted elite dissatisfaction, a shift in political behavior, or regime change, as hoped by those who have imposed them.[27] Putin’s organized criminal state has also weakened the rule of law in Russia and several of its formerly Soviet satellite states,[28] while he and his henchmen remain out of the reach of monitoring organizations and international law, protected by other similarly authoritarian regimes, like China.[29] Further sanctions from the United States and Europe need to be in combination with comprehensive and decisive action.
New Emergency Foreign Aid Bill in Traction
On February 13, 2024, the Senate passed a new emergency foreign aid package; this time without the immigration enforcement add-on, providing $61 billion for Ukraine.[30] With the bill’s passage in the House, the United States could reaffirm its stand against totalitarianism and commitment to democracy. Instead, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson continues to stall, with MAGA Republicans insisting on re-coupling Ukrainian aid with American border security.[31] Meanwhile, after the fall of Avdiivka on February 17, a “victory” that cost Russia more casualties than the entire ten-year Soviet war in Afghanistan,[32] and Putin’s sham election to another six-year term on March 17,[33] he is pressing this window of opportunity and waiting for Trump, if also reelected, to hand him the keys to Ukraine.[34]
On March 14, 2024, Speaker Johnson said he understood “the timetable and the urgency of the funding.”[35] But when pressed several days later on the timing of a vote and specifics of any such aid, Johnson demurred.[36] One possible funding source proposed by GOP leaders is billions in frozen Russian sovereign assets.[37] House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul said he is discussing the prospect of loans instead of grants for the Ukrainian government.[38] But consensus is lacking, and details are few.[39] Also, forcing loans on a democracy that is fighting for its life against all odds in the face of rapacious tyranny seems predatory and unamerican. House Democrats argue that immediate passage of the Senate bill is the simplest path forward to meet the urgent need, and that there is no time to start over as Ukraine runs low on ammunition and loses precious ground to Putin’s hordes.[40] Any new package would also need support from ultraconservative Republicans, who remain staunchly against further funding of Ukraine.[41] And so, the slumber of House Republicans on Ukraine continues.
Conclusion
The isolationism of the “America First” approach clearly benefits Putin, like it did von Moltke and Hitler, before World Wars I and II, respectively. Another American withdrawal from the world stage is threatening to imbalance the global order and throw Europe into a new age of darkness. Putin’s Russia, nourished like Hitler and the Third Reich by self-centered megalomania and delusional absolutism,[42] will not stop at Ukraine, but instead will come next for the rest of the former Soviet republics.[43]
Following World War I, American ratification of the Treaty of Versailles and membership in the League of Nations once promised to be the most effective deterrent to the reemergence of an expansionist Germany. Today, the surest path to defeating Russia’s coercive, corrosive imperialism is continued American and allied material support, increasingly withering sanctions, passage of the aid package now languishing in the House of Representatives, and admission of Ukraine to the European Union and NATO. Synchronization of unified action by Western democracies for as long as it takes, along with true profiles in courage from several Republican politicians, are the keys to finally disproving Putin’s ludicrous reasons for this war and to grinding down and defeating his menacing regime.
[1] MacMillan, Margaret, “Warnings From Versailles: Lessons from 1919, a Hundred Years On,” 1/8/19, Foreign Affairs, https://www-foreignaffairs-com.hks.idm.oclc.org/articles/europe/2019-01-08/warnings-versailles.
[2] Kennedy, John F. “Why England Slept,” 1940, at pgs. 10-15, JFK Library, https://www.jfklibrary.org/asset-viewer/archives/jfkpp-026-004.
[3] Cooper, John Milton Jr., “Breaking the Heart of the World: Woodrow Wilson and the Fight for the League of Nations,” 2001, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, at p. 283; “Woodrow Wilson,” Wikipedia, accessed 1/28/24, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson.
[4] Clements, Kendrick A, “The Presidency of Woodrow Wilson,” 1992, University Press of Kansas, at pgs. 191–192, 200; “Woodrow Wilson,” Wikipedia, accessed 1/28/24, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson.
[5] Bailey, Thomas A., “Woodrow Wilson and the Great Betrayal,” 1945, New York: Macmillan, at p. 277; “Woodrow Wilson,” Wikipedia, accessed 1/28/24, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson.
[6] Ambrosius, Lloyd E., “Woodrow Wilson’s Health and the Treaty Fight, 1919–1920,” Feb. 1987, The International History Review. Taylor & Francis, 9 (1) at pgs. 73–84; Bailey, Thomas A., “Woodrow Wilson and the Great Betrayal,” 1945, New York: Macmillan, at p. 277.
[7] Cooper, John Milton Jr., “Breaking the Heart of the World: Woodrow Wilson and the Fight for the League of Nations,” 2001, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press at pg. 283; “Woodrow Wilson,” Wikipedia, accessed 1/28/24, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson.
[8] Kennedy, John F. “Why England Slept,” 1940, at pg. 10, JFK Library, https://www.jfklibrary.org/asset-viewer/archives/jfkpp-026-004; Baldwin, Stanley Earl Baldwin, “The Falconer Lectures,” April 22, 1939, at pg. 32.
[9] Kapur, S. and Thorp, F., “’Immoral’: Some Republicans rebuke efforts to kill immigration deal to help Trump,” 1/25/24, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/immoral-republicans-rebuke-efforts-kill-immigration-deal-help-trump-rcna135732.
[10] Jackson, Jon, “Russia Warns NATO It’s Approaching a Red Line,” 2/27/24, Newsweek, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-warns-nato-it-s-approaching-a-red-line/ar-BB1iZ2mo?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=9f0230eaa4784e27bf7d9fd717fabd32&ei=19.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Ibid.
[13] Kube, C, Lee, C., Alba, M., ”White House to provide $300 million weapons package for Ukraine,” 3/12/24, NBC News, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-to-provide-300-million-weapons-package-for-ukraine/ar-BB1jM8Va?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=adcf07264a534044a641fb8ab8605600&ei=118.
[14] Jackson, Jon, “Russia Warns NATO It’s Approaching a Red Line,” 2/27/24, Newsweek, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-warns-nato-it-s-approaching-a-red-line/ar-BB1iZ2mo?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=9f0230eaa4784e27bf7d9fd717fabd32&ei=19.
[15] “Bradley, Charlie, “Vladimir Putin’s ‘weak’ forces would be crushed in war with NATO, top army chief warns,” 2/28/24, Daily Express US, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-s-weak-forces-would-be-crushed-in-war-with-nato-top-army-chief-warns/ar-BB1j2eFo?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=02493300c24c4672852e8bfc390f9eea&ei=110; Epstein, J., Davis, C., ”Putin thought Russia’s military could capture Kyiv in 2 days, but it still hasn’t in 20,” 3/15/22, Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-russian-forces-could-take-kyiv-ukraine-two-days-2022-3.
[16] Jackson, Jon, “Russia Warns NATO It’s Approaching a Red Line,” 2/27/24, Newsweek, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-warns-nato-it-s-approaching-a-red-line/ar-BB1iZ2mo?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=9f0230eaa4784e27bf7d9fd717fabd32&ei=19.z
[17] Zisman, Baila. ”Facing Troop Shortage, Putin To Raise Russia’s Maximum Military Age To 70 From 51,“ 3/2/24, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/facing-troop-shortage-putin-to-raise-russias-maximum-military-age-to-70-from-51/ar-BB1jeaO2, Slisco, Aila, ”Russia Proposes Military Age Limit that Surpasses Country’s Life Expectancy,” 2/13/24. Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/russia-military-age-limit-surpasses-life-expectancy-1869696
[18] Boddy, Alexis, “Close ally of Alexei Navalny claims he was days away from being freed in a prisoner exchange,” 2/26/24, City Law School, U. of London, GB, https://www.jurist.org/news/2024/02/close-ally-of-alexei-navalny-claims-he-was-days-away-from-being-freed-in-a-prisoner-exchange/.
[19] Cole, Brendon, ”Russian Military Hit by Mass Desertions,” 3/20/24, Newsweek, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-military-hit-by-mass-desertions/ar-BB1keekS?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=525dc8e95f574d298cb253e692294e18&ei=16
[20] Ibid.
[21] Ibid.
[22] Hartog, Eva, ”Meet the Russian women taking on Putin,” 3/9/24, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/meet-the-russian-women-taking-on-putin/, van Brugen, Isabel, ”Mother of Dead Russian Soldier Vows Uprising Against Putin,” 7/14/22, Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/mother-dead-russian-soldier-vows-uprising-putin-ukraine-war-1724516.
[23] Bradley, Charlie, ”Vladimir Putin’s ‘weak’ forces would be crushed in war with NATO, top army chief warns,” 2/28/24, Daily Express US, https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/129360/putin-army-russia-nato-war.
[24] Ibid.
[25] Amberg, P., Christiaans, D., Fischer, K., AND Chen, N., “Key Considerations from the EU’s 12th Russia Sanctions Package,” 2/2/24, https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/key-considerations-from-the-eus-12th-russia-sanctions-package/; Peterson, Thielβ, ”Sanctions Against Russia – Limited Success, but Not Fruitless,” Global & European Dynamics, 3/1/24, https://globaleurope.eu/europes-future/sanctions-against-russia-limited-success-but-not-fruitless/
[26] Gabriel, G. and Jackeu, V., “EU hits end of the line on Russian energy sanctions,” 11/24/23, https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-hits-end-of-the-line-on-russian-energy-sanctions/; Peterson, Thielβ, ”Sanctions Against Russia – Limited Success, but Not Fruitless,” Global & European Dynamics, 3/1/24, https://globaleurope.eu/europes-future/sanctions-against-russia-limited-success-but-not-fruitless/
[27] Peterson, Thielβ, ”Sanctions Against Russia – Limited Success, but Not Fruitless,” Global & European Dynamics, 3/1/24, https://globaleurope.eu/europes-future/sanctions-against-russia-limited-success-but-not-fruitless/; Drezner, Daniel W. “Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice,” International Studies Review, Vol. 13, No. 1, 3/11, pp. 96-108, Wiley on behalf of The International Studies Association, https://www.jstor.org/stable/23016144.
[28] Human Rights Watch, ”Belarus,” https://www.hrw.org/europe/central-asia/belarus; Human Rights Watch, ”Kazakhstan,” https://www.hrw.org/europe/central-asia/kazakhstan; Human Rights Watch, “Kyrgyzstan,“ https://www.hrw.org/europe/central-asia/kyrgyzstan
[29] Chen, L., Yew, L., Faulconbridge, G., ”Exclusive-Russia’s Putin to visit China in May, sources say,” 3/19/24, Associated Press, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/exclusive-russia-s-putin-to-visit-china-in-may-sources-say/ar-BB1ka5AV.
[30] Freking, Kevin, “What’s inside the Senate’s $95 billion bill to aid Ukraine and Israel and counter China,” 2/13/24, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-aid-congress-senate-china-d7b4846de76a1dfe5d2207b7eb6eeead
[31] Ibid.
[32] Rothen, Henrik, “The Battle for Avdiivka: Russia’s Losses Surpass a Decade in Afghanistan,” 2/27/24, https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/the-battle-for-avdiivka-russia-s-losses-surpass-a-decade-in-afghanistan/ar-BB1j056Z.
[33] Lutz, Eric, ”Putin’s Sham Victory Makes Trump 2.0 All the More Frightening,” 3/18/24, Vanity Fair, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/vladimir-putin-russian-election; Burrrows, E., Litvinova, D., Heintz, J., ”Putin extends rule in preordained Russian election after harshest crackdown since Soviet era,” 3/18/24, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/russia-election-putin-2024-updates-ebdaae1bf12b44343b88ba471f9f0cb0.
[34] Timotija, Filip, “Democrat says Trump would ‘hand the keys over to Putin’ if reelected,” 2/16/24, The Hill, https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4472801-democrat-trump-would-hand-keys-to-putin-if-reelected/.
[35] Wasson, E, House, B, Sheehey, M., ”House Republicans Look to Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Ukraine,” 3/14/24, Bloomberg, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/house-republicans-look-to-frozen-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine/ar-BB1jUnSl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=dc252c9567a0478d88d6de7c145ba4b3&ei=78.
[36] The Washington Post (video), ”Johnson Punts on Ukraine Aid Timing,“ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/johnson-punts-on-ukraine-aid-timing/vi-BB1kereT.
[37] Wasson, E, House, B, Sheehey, M., ”House Republicans Look to Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Ukraine,” 3/14/24, Bloomberg, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/house-republicans-look-to-frozen-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine/ar-BB1jUnSl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=dc252c9567a0478d88d6de7c145ba4b3&ei=78.
[38] Wasson, E, House, B, Sheehey, M., ”House Republicans Look to Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Ukraine,” 3/14/24, Bloomberg, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/house-republicans-look-to-frozen-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine/ar-BB1jUnSl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=dc252c9567a0478d88d6de7c145ba4b3&ei=78.
[39]The Washington Post (video), ”Johnson Punts on Ukraine Aid Timing,“ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/johnson-punts-on-ukraine-aid-timing/vi-BB1kereT.
[40] Wasson, E, House, B, Sheehey, M., ”House Republicans Look to Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Ukraine,” 3/14/24, Bloomberg, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/house-republicans-look-to-frozen-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine/ar-BB1jUnSl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=dc252c9567a0478d88d6de7c145ba4b3&ei=78.
[41] Ibid.
[42] Tuchman, Barbara, “Guns of August,” 1988, Ballantine Books, New York, at Page 22.
[43] Melvin, Neil, “Nationalist and Imperial Thinking Define Putin’s Vision for Russia,” 3/2/22, Rusi, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nationalist-and-imperial-thinking-define-putins-vision-russia.