In the turbulent theater of global geopolitics, Kazakhstan – sandwiched between two major regional powers, Russia and China – occupies a unique yet precarious position. Much like the creamy center of an Oreo cookie, Kazakhstan, the first Middle Power to emerge in Central Asia,[i] serves as a vital yet often overlooked bridge between contrasting forces, while striving to define its own path to sustainable development.
As globalization gives way to regionalization, the country’s geographical position presents both a daunting challenge and a remarkable opportunity. Our so-called “Oreo Model” calls for Kazakhstan to abandon generic development models and leverage its unique geography to craft a blueprint tailored to emerging circumstances. This model envisions Kazakhstan transforming its role as a geopolitical filler into a strategic advantage by fostering niche industries, strengthening institutions and developing human capital while championing regional cooperation. Kazakhstan has a fleeting window to redefine its strategic role. The stakes could not be higher – the country has the potential to evolve from a resource-dependent economy into a model of regional cooperation and resilience. Failure to adapt, however, could condemn it to remain a backyard economy, subject to the whims of external forces and domestic inefficiencies.
The Oreo Model: Balancing Giants and Building Independence
The Oreo Model envisions Kazakhstan as the essential “filler” linking East and West, while also bolstering its economic independence. This entails expanding development in sectors where the country has established expertise – including energy, agriculture, logistics and infrastructure, and human capital-driven innovation – while also identifying new opportunities to build competitive advantages. Economist Dani Rodrik’s warning that “developing countries cannot simply replicate the strategies of countries that developed before them” highlights the need for a tailored approach toward development.[ii] Kazakhstan must craft a strategy rooted in its own geopolitical and economic realities.
At the same time, the unraveling of the traditional global order has put Kazakhstan at a crossroads and in a delicate geopolitical position. While its vast resources have historically fueled economic growth, dependence on oil exports has left the country vulnerable to external shocks. Global disruptions caused by Western sanctions imposed on Russia and growing U.S.-China tensions have highlighted Kazakhstan’s role as a transit hub in projects like China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s emerging North-South corridor. However, these opportunities risk deepening Kazakhstan’s dependency on neighboring powers. Our model outlines a pathway for Kazakhstan to transition toward sustainable economic growth – filling and sealing the economic seams without being squeezed by geopolitical pressures.
Energy
Kazakhstan’s energy sector remains pivotal to its national economic security.[iii] Building on its hydrocarbon wealth, the country’s political leadership has voiced support for a diversified energy strategy, including the development of the country’s first nuclear cluster.[iv] Selecting strategic partners with robust track records and minimal sanction exposure will be key to ensure that the country’s nuclear expansion remains both reliable and globally integrated. At the same time, policymakers must avoid overdependence on a single resource or technology, striking a balance that preserves energy sustainability and fosters cooperation with global energy companies.
While Kazakhstan’s energy diversification efforts are under way, coal still dominates its power generation. Utilizing extensive coal reserves in a sustainable manner – particularly through cleaner coal applications and carbon capture – remains vital for the country’s commitments made in previous COP agreements. Expanding renewables, which currently contributes slightly above 5% of energy production,[v] alongside completing the long-planned integration of the Western Kazakhstan power system with the unified (central) energy system is essential for safeguarding national interests while enhancing energy reliability and reinforcing its role as a bridge between China and Russia.
Agriculture
Another industry in which Kazakhstan has comparative advantages is agriculture. Kazakhstan has long been a testing ground for various agricultural experiments imposed by Soviet planned economy. One of the bright examples was Khrushchev’s Virgin Lands Campaign in the 1950s, which unfortunately left the nation with depleted soil, eroded landscapes, and disrupted ecosystems.[vi] This and other experiments (such as the Soviet Union’s cotton farming policies in Central Asia) had devastating effects on agriculture, pushing it beyond sustainable limits and disrupting ecosystems, as seen in the Aral Sea crisis.
By creating a comparative advantage and developing higher marginal agri-businesses, Kazakhstan will not only bolster its self-reliance and meet ever-growing demand of Chinese and Russian customers but also support the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal of ending world hunger. This would reinforce the country’s role as a proactive global player rather than a passive resource supplier, provided that reliable transport infrastructure and efficient logistics are in place.
Logistics and infrastructure.
As a Middle Power, Kazakhstan is an anchor for the stability and development of the region.[vii] As a natural bridge between Europe and Asia, Kazakhstan invests a lot of political capital and financial resources into transport projects such as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which has the potential to cement the country’s role as a Eurasian logistical hub.[viii] Kazakhstan needs to build new and upgrade existing sea-/dry-ports in major cross-border locations, meet global fulfilment standards (such as those of Amazon and Walmart), and enhance transport networks, customs procedures, and communication lines, strengthening the country’s indispensability in regional trade while reducing dependence on any single partner.
Newly constructed roads can boost trade, create jobs, and improve road safety, while modern technology solutions can streamline freight handling, customs processes, and connectivity – all tangible benefits that reinforce Kazakhstan’s attractiveness as a transit hub.[ix] With the government’s proactive investments, the country’s prime location in the heart of Eurasia,[x] and the current National Infrastructure Plan which targets key corridors, railways, and port facilities,[xi] Kazakhstan is well-positioned to be the next international logistics center. Taken together, these initiatives will strengthen Kazakhstan’s role on a Eurasian continent where Russia and China play major role, paving the way for deeper investments in the human capital needed to sustain this momentum.
Human Capital and Innovation:
Today, Kazakhstan faces significant human capital challenges, with brain drain as the primary issue. Engineers and technical specialists started gravitating toward global innovation hubs where mature industry ecosystems and clusters abound, such as Silicon Valley.[xii] To reverse this trend, Kazakhstan must strategically invest in building its own competitive clusters to retain the skilled labor at home and attract talents from abroad. Additionally, prioritizing STEM education and resuming the focus on vocational training would prepare Kazakhstan’s youth for the demands of the 21st century. Without these efforts, the country risks fostering a generation of underemployed young people, especially from rural areas, susceptible to the kind of socio-economic disenfranchisement that contributed to the tragic unrest the country saw in January 2022.[xiii] Finally, Kazakhstan should adopt English as a third official language which could facilitate the country’s integration into global educational and labor value chains, enabling Kazakh talent to thrive in an interconnected world.
The Path Forward
Unlike previous frameworks such as the Washington Consensus or the Beijing Consensus, that require countries to ‘choose’, the Oreo Model is deeply rooted in Kazakhstan’s unique geopolitical position and specific economic realities, rather than following a “one-size-fits-all” roadmap. Diplomatic finesse will be vital in implementing the Oreo Model across the four priority sectors—energy, agriculture, logistics and infrastructure, and human capital. For instance, Kazakhstan’s energy diversification strategy will require delicate balancing of partnerships with Russia, China, and global energy leaders. In agriculture, the nation can collaborate with its neighbors to boost exports and jointly develop climate-resilient practices, all while safeguarding its environmental interests. Effective coordination with Russia and China on logistics corridors—such as rail networks and digital trade platforms—demands carefully structured agreements that prevent overdependence. Meanwhile, advancing human capital initiatives, from global university partnerships to technical skills development, calls for astute negotiation to harness international expertise without compromising Kazakhstan’s sovereignty.
Some may argue that Kazakhstan’s reliance on cooperation with dominant neighbors like Russia and China risks undermining its autonomy, turning the Oreo Model into a tool for external influence rather than independent growth. However, the model’s emphasis on tailored diplomacy and strategic balancing ensures that Kazakhstan retains control over its priorities, using these partnerships to its advantage rather than being subsumed by them. Consider Indonesia and Kenya, former Dutch and British colonies respectively. The countries have masterfully managed historical ties with Western powers alongside China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Indonesia leverages its trade networks and Southeast Asian location to secure BRI projects like the $7 billion Whoosh Railway funded out of Chinese loans, while deepening U.S. and Australian security partnerships to maintain autonomy.[xiv] Similarly, Kenya harnesses its British-built port and rail legacies, integrating the $5 billion Chinese-funded Standard Gauge Railway with U.S. and UK security ties, ensuring that Chinese economic expansion coexists with Western interests without compromising sovereignty.[xv] These examples highlight how Kazakhstan can transform its position between Russia, China, and the West into a strategic advantage for the Oreo Model, retaining control over its destiny.
Realizing the Oreo Model will require bold institutional reforms as well as an agile and adaptive approach that can help the country chart its own path to long-term prosperity. As Dani Rodrik suggests, sustaining productive dynamism and strengthening institutions are crucial.[xvi] Therefore, continued focus on the needs of the country’s economy while strengthening the rule of law will be essential. Drawing lessons from Singapore’s transformation under Lee Kuan Yew, Kazakhstan’s political leadership should continue building efficient and resilient institutions that support sustained growth. Today, Kazakhstan stands at a pivotal juncture. As the world navigates a new era of regionalization, Kazakhstan, as a truly middle power, has a unique opportunity to define its role on the global stage. The Oreo Model offers more than a metaphor—it provides a practical framework for leveraging the country’s intermediary position to foster sustainable, inclusive growth. By embracing this model, Kazakhstan can transform from a geopolitical buffer to a global bridge, carving its own path between giants. In the creamy center of global dynamics, Kazakhstan has the chance to define its own flavor: a blend of independence, cooperation, and sustainable development.
Endnotes
[i] Barbara Lippert and Hans Meir, “Mittlere Mächte –einflussreiche Akteure in der internationalen Politik,” Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), January 23, 2024, https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024S01/..
[ii] Dani Rodrik, “Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank’s Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform,” Journal of Economic Literature XLIV, December 2006: 973–987. https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/goodbye_washington_consensus_.pdf.
[iii] Daniel Yergin, foreword to The National Energy Report, (Astana: KazEnergy, 2023) https://www.kazenergy.com/upload/document/energy-report/NationalReport23_en.pdf.
[iv] Saniya Sakenova, “President Tokayev Calls for Creating Nuclear Cluster in Kazakhstan,” Astana Times, January 28, 2025, https://astanatimes.com/2025/01/president-tokayev-calls-for-creating-nuclear-cluster-in-kazakhstan/.
[v] Yana Zabanova, “Kazakhstan: Central Asia’s Energy Transition Pioneer,” Research Institute for Sustainability at GFZ, July 2, 2024, https://www.rifs-potsdam.de/en/blog/2024/07/kazakhstan-central-asias-energy-transition-pioneer.
[vi] Martin McCauley, Khrushchev and the Development of Soviet Agriculture: The Virgin Lands Program 1953-1964, (New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, Inc., 1976).
[vii] Svante E. Cornell, “Kazakhstan and the Rise of Middle Powers in Central Asia,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, July 31, 2024, https://www.cacianalyst.org/resources/pdf/240731_FT_Kaz.pdf.
[viii] “Middle Corridor,” Web-portal of The Association Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Accessed February 12, 2025, https://middlecorridor.com/en/.
[ix] Kubat Sydykov, “How New Roads in Kazakhstan Create Jobs, Save Lives, and Boost Trade,” World Bank Briefs. July 11, 2024, https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2024/07/11/how-new-roads-in-kazakhstan-create-jobs-save-lives-and-boost-trade.
[x] “3 Signs that Point to Kazakhstan as the Next International Logistics Hub,” Web-portal of NXTPoint Logistics. Accessed February 10, 2025, https://nxtpointlogistics.com/blog/3-signs-that-point-to-kazakhstan-as-the-next-international-logistics-hub/.
[xi] Saniya Sakenova, “Kazakhstan Adopts Infrastructure Development Plan Until 2029,” Astana Times, October 16, 2024, https://astanatimes.com/2024/10/kazakhstan-adopts-infrastructure-devt-plan-until-2029/.
[xii] Laurie Peters, “Kazakhstan Startup CerebraAI Relocates Headquarters to Silicon Valley,” Business Wire, April 02, 2024, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240402257293/en/Kazakhstan-Startup-CerebraAI-Relocates-Headquarters-to-Silicon-Valley-to-Address-Severe-Emergency-Care-Diagnostics-Gap-through-Novel-Generative-AI-Medical-Imaging-Approach.
[xiii] Philip M. Nichols, “Kazakhstan unrest, explained,” Penn Today, January 10, 2022, https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/kazakhstan-unrest-explained.
[xiv] Benedicta Nathania, Aisha Kusumasomantri, “Indonesia steps up defense relationships, but stays non-aligned,” The Strategist, March 6, 2025, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indonesia-steps-up-defence-relationships-but-stays-non-aligned/
[xv] Celestine A. Rarieya, Sophia E. de Vicente, “China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Africa: Kenya’s pivotal role,” Global Affairs, Universidad de Navarra, March 8, 2024, https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-in-africa-kenya-s-pivotal-role
[xvi] Dani Rodrik, “A Practical Approach to Formulating Growth Strategies,” Initiative for Policy Dialogue Working Paper Series, April 2007, https://ipdcolumbia.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Ch_16.pdf.