As I listened to my two teenage daughters share their excitement after returning from Tonawanda, NY, where they had represented the Cambridge Synchro Club in an artistic swimming competition, I found myself wondering: Will they be willing to return to Kazakhstan once my graduate studies conclude in a couple of months?
Every year, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries send hundreds of talented students, including mid-career professionals, to study in the United States.[1] Whether self-funded or supported by external scholarships, many face the same dilemma: Will I be able to find a job in the United States amid a cooling job market and tightening immigration policies? And if not, will there be any meaningful opportunities back home?
These questions are understandable but the reasons behind them are deeply concerning. Over the past 15 years, during which I pursued my own graduate studies at Columbia University and later worked as a diplomat in Washington D.C., I observed a troubling trend – an increasing number of talented students and professionals are choosing to remain in the United States after graduation. And many more who are in Kazakhstan are exploring options to relocate abroad.
This ongoing “brain-drain” in Kazakhstan, which has led to an exodus of roughly 366,000 people in the last ten years,[2] is a worrisome phenomenon and threat to our country’s future. How did we arrive at a point where we are losing the most valuable resource – our human capital? What can be done to reverse the trend and create a long-term “brain-gain” instead?
Several systemic issues should be acknowledged. First, the institutions in Kazakhstan have remained incapable of supporting sustainable development. Short-term considerations almost always prevail over long-term ones, often in direct contradiction to previous official announcements,[3] leaving many promising leaders and technocrats seeking positive change disappointed. Second, the country’s legal system has been destabilized by poor protection of the rule of law in previous administrations, fueling a sense of insecurity and making the injustices facing the general citizenry more apparent.[4] Third, repeated efforts to stimulate alternative, non-oil engines of growth in the resource-dependent country have so far been inconclusive, and have not translated into new opportunities[5] where the advanced knowledge of professionals could have been applied.
Some might argue that the political administration has been always supportive of youth and launched numerous programs aimed at creating opportunities. However, what looked good on paper was often poorly executed, and many initiatives faded into oblivion without any substantial impact. A telling example is Serpin-2050, launched in 2014 to give full scholarships to students from the densely populated southern regions on the condition that they spend at least three years working in Kazakhstan’s labor-scarce north and east. By 2023, however, only 17 percent of graduates had met that obligation due to thin job markets, scarce housing, and almost no follow-up support from the program administrators.[6] Serpin-2050 thus became another headline-grabbing initiative that delivered little durable impact.
So, what is the path forward? Comprehensive and carefully designed programs encouraging mid-career graduates to join public service could be a good start. The recently launched Presidential Personnel Reserve, for instance, aims to attract young professionals to the public sector.[7] However, as previous administrative reforms prove, transparency and meritocracy are essential for its success. Competitive salary packages aligned with private sector standards are also essential to invite and retain top-tier professionals.
Kazakhstan could also develop a national “Brain Gain” initiative focused on attracting specialists currently residing abroad. Not only former residents and citizens, but also foreign nationals could be considered, based on their potential to make a meaningful impact on Kazakhstan’s development. There is no need to reinvent the wheel. The country can adapt programs like South Korea’s “Brain Korea 21″[8] or Ireland’s Global Irish,[9] both of which transformed their economies by prioritizing talents and innovation.
Collaboration with top academic institutions can also offer cutting edge strategies. For example, Stanford University researchers have proposed the Talent Portfolio Theory (TPT), a novel talent development framework modeled after investment strategy. TPT’s four pillars – brain gain (attracting from abroad), brain train (develop from within), brain circulation (global rotation of talents), and brain linkage (diaspora engagement)[10] – could provide a well-rounded approach to build a resilient nationwide human capital development system.
Despite the attractiveness of such initiatives, they will not succeed without political and economic reforms. This particularly applies to securing the rule of law, where the population’s sense of insecurity is a direct consequence of long-standing failures. Recent efforts such as the introduction of new professional standards, transparent selection of judges, and expanded use of jury trials,[11] are still in progress and have yet to fully address the legal system’s inherited deep-rooted issues. Additionally, development of institutions and modernizing the economy should be prioritized, replicating overseas success stories where the principles of merit-based recruitment, high accountability, and robust anti-corruption policies were incorporated.
By developing and implementing well-structured programs addressing the needs and meeting the expectations of our mid-career professionals, Kazakhstan has a chance not only to stop “brain drain” but to reverse it, securing the country’s long-term inclusive economic growth for a new generation. I hope that among them will be my teenage daughters, who will decide themselves to live and work in the country that values their talent and helps them thrive.
[1] Open Doors® data portal for international students. Institute of International Education (IIE). Accessed Apr 26, 2025. https://opendoorsdata.org/data/international-students/all-places-of-origin/
[2] Irina Osipova, “One-Way Ticket, or the New Trends of Emigration From Kazakhstan”, February 11, 2021. Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting https://cabar.asia/en/one-way-ticket-or-the-new-trends-of-emigration-from-kazakhstan
[3] The BTI Transformation Index. Kazakhstan Country Report 2024. Bertelsmann Stiftung. Accessed Apr 26, 2025. https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/KAZ#pos16
[4] Nargis Kassenova, “Surrounded by superpowers, Kazakhstan walks a geopolitical tightrope”, February 5, 2025. Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/books/surrounded-by-superpowers-kazakhstan-walks-a-geopolitical-tightrope/?t
[5] Hausmann, R., et al. “The Economic Complexity of Kazakhstan: A Roadmap for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth”. February 2023. CID Faculty Working Paper No. 426, Harvard University. https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/publications/economic-complexity-kazakhstan-roadmap?t
[6] Ranking.kz Economic Monitoring Portal. January 30,2024. Accessed April 26, 2025 https://ranking.kz/reviews/regions/lish-17-4-uchastnikov-proekta-serpin-s-yuga-v-2020-2022-godah-otrabotali-stazh-na-severe.html
[7] Aida Haidar, “Nurturing Future Leaders: Insights into Kazakhstan’s Presidential Youth Personnel Reserve”, February 10, 2024. The Astana Times. https://astanatimes.com/2024/02/nurturing-future-leaders-insights-into-kazakhstans-presidential-youth-personnel-reserve/
[8] Somi Seong et al. “Brain Korea 21 Phase II: A New Evaluation Model”. 2008, RAND Corporation https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg711krf
[9] Global Ireland – Ireland’s Diaspora Strategy 2020-2025. November 18, 2020. Accessed April 6, 2025.https://www.ireland.ie/en/usa/austin/news-and-events/news-archive/global-ireland-irelands-diaspora-strategy-2020-2025/
[10] Noa Ronkin, “A New Approach to Talent Development”. August 29, 2024. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Center. Stanford University. https://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/korea/news/new-approach-talent-development-lessons-japan-and-singapore
[11] Aslambek Mergaliyev, “Kazakhstan Sets New Standards in Judicial Independence”, December 5, 2024. Modern Diplomacy. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/12/05/kazakhstan-sets-new-standards-in-judicial-independence/?t